“Failing to plan is planning to fail.”

There are many comical sayings about mans ability to forecast future events. The best laid plans of mice and men, how to make God laugh, etc. From a statistical standpoint, compiling all the forecasters together is sure to yield some percentage that accurately foresaw some events. This inevitably creates the illusion of a contemporary Nostradamus that thinks one line of thinking is sure to yield the proverbial cheat-sheet to the timeline of human action.

If you spend more than an hour or so in amateur investment circles, you’ll no doubt come across folks who claim to have a formula for predicting stock prices, who can predict interest rate movements, etc. This isn’t to say there aren’t those who can accurately describe cause and effect scenarios. We shouldn’t disregard those who understand sequence and chain of events. What you have to do is understand where experience comes into play, and understand the angle. Everyone, I repeat, everyone, has an angle. The guy telling you about this amazing penny stock? He probably owns a large number of shares and is waiting to find the next bag holder for a 20% markup on those very same shares. The old adage “if it seems too good to be true…” should be tattooed on your mind.

There are those who have open minds and could spend many hours detailing certain chains of events and how they may come to fruition. As previously stated, we ought not to disregard those who can speak from experience, but we need also to keep in mind how much there is out there that we simply do not know.

When it comes to plans, I like to keep all my information in a row and have an idea of what my course of action may be in certain circumstances. That doesn’t mean detailing a flowchart of immediate action should a certain situation present itself, but just a mental exercise of entertaining scenarios without accepting the premise as 100% probability.


Posted on January 2, 2014, in Anything & Everything and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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